Hybrids

 

Electric Vehicle, Hybrid and Hydrogen car forecasts
1automotive provides bespoke forecast for Organizations and Companies according to very specific criteria and sets of assumptions. Some of these have to be decided by the organization (for example degree of Government involvement, control/regulation and subsidies). 

Defence of forecasting products and services:

  • We have already worked closely with several clients on this including ThyssenKrupp Stainless Steel tubes.
  • A number of competitors have objected to this study as unfair business practice. We do not agree or understand this. What we are offering is original, complex and valid. 1automotive’s work is real added value and we work with clients on an individual basis to help them develop extremely long term strategies.
  • Please note that 1automotive has been conducting such forecasts since 1970 with long time horizons and an extremely complex set of assumptions governing the forecast period and environment:

See for example: The Future of the World Motor Industry, Professor Krish Bhaskar
Hardcover: 385 pages
Publisher: Nichols Pub Co (June 1980)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0893970832
ISBN-13: 978-0893970833

Summary of forecasts available

  • Markets: All countries and/or combination of countries or regions.
  • Segments: All segments, all types of alternative fuel and propulsion systems.
  • Model: Model level detail available as typical models past the 2020 forecast time horizon.
  • Time Horizon: Normally between 10-15 years but longer horizons are available.
    For ThyssenKrupp (stainless steel tubes) the forecast horizon was as long as 2050.
  • Types of fuel: All and any combination required.
  • Propulsion: Any combination required.
  • Assumptions: 1automotive’s assumptions, your assumptions or some combination.

1automotive has its own sets of central, pessimistic and optimistic forecast assumptions in the event you do not want to make any assumptions. We also provide forecast of the development of conventional vehicles and their exhaust emissions and regulatory control thereof.

Warning: As with any forecast there is a risk that the assumptions used to derive the forecast are not correct. Reliance on any forecast carries attendant risks.

Background: where were these results first publicly presented and why?

These forecasts were presented to an audience of around 1,000 automotive heads at Milan in Italy on June 16 in a paper entitled:

Research & Innovation In Automotive: The Real Challenge For The Future
By Massimo Ciommei, Managing Director, Tubificio di Terni Spa, ThyssenKrupp

For the exhaust manufacturers the growth of electric vehicles and/or vehicles with significantly smaller or no exhaust, is a major issue. If the growth of electric vehicles reduces the need for stainless steel exhausts then the long term forecast showing the demand for conventional vehicles with exhausts is important – demand for exhaust systems may just disappear.

If vehicles with exhaust systems survive, then the long term forecast of such vehicles are equally important. The content in exhaust systems is likely to change in a world where tail-pipe emissions and fuel economy continues to be an issue, militating towards increased use of more and lighter stainless steel in exhaust systems. Hence, such forecasts may be imperative to the exhaust manufacturers necessitating additional capacity not only in mature markets but also in China/India/Brazil and other emerging markets.

This growth is likely to be particularly strong in new types of high-quality, low-cost stainless steel. As such this growth in stainless steel exhaust tubing may also require new types of stainless steel with the following properties (these may vary at different points along the total exhaust tail-pipe from the manifold onwards):

  • High temperature resistance
  • Oxidation resistance
  • Creep resistance
  • High temperature fatigue resistance
  • Cyclic oxidation resistance
  • Oxidation in chloride environment
  • Inner corrosion resistance
  • Salt corrosion resistance
  • Spalling resistance
  • Condensate corrosion resistance
  • Pitting corrosion resistance
  • Cosmetic corrosion resistance
  • Heat tinting resistance

And hence the need to develop new experimental ferritic steels in addition to reducing the cost of existing conventional; ferritic and austenitic steels for exhaust use.

 

Types of vehicles

Conventional vehicles
Non-conventional vehicles

    Electric vehicles => Battery only vehicles BEV
    Hybrids

      Non-Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
        Mild
        Full    

          Parallel

           

          ► Toyota Prius type both internal combustion and electric motors power vehicle

           

          Series

           

          ► extended range; electric motors only power vehicle, smaller internal combustion engine provides electricity to recharge batteries.

     

      Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

          Parallel

           

          PHEV = version of the above with a place to power up the batteries either at home or rapid-charge (high voltage) stations, with plug or by induction.

           

          Series

           

          EREV = Volt/Ampera type range extended; electric motors power vehicle and internal combustion engine provides electricity to recharge batteries.

 

Hydrogen power

  • Hydrogen fueled internal combustion engine vehicles
  • Hydrogen powers fuel cells which then runs electric motor(s)

Alternative fuels

    Minor tweaks to existing range of fuels including ethanol, vegetable based fuels
    Radical

      Steam (now discarded)
      Sterling
      Air (rights now owned by Tata)
      Water
      Sun light
      Electricity by induction from out of orbit collectors
      Nuclear e.g. cold fusion condensed reactors
      Many others


You specify:

 

We need to discuss with you the following major factors and assumptions

  1. The level of demand in a steady-state artificial world. For example we have production hitting 120 million vehicles per year between 2020 and 2030. Does this meet with your assumptions or do you wish to be more conservative... or like the Chinese more optimistic?
  2. The future price of oil or trend in the price of oil and other conventional alternative fuels including the level of taxation on them.
  3. The future trend in the price of electricity, hydrogen, batteries for example hydrogen and electricity: including any regulation and/or taxation of these fuels.
  4. The degree to which volume production will reduce the price of new types of vehicles.
  5. Degree of Government regulation or taxation which will force consumers to buy non-conventional cars.
  6. Degree of subsidy governments in your chosen countries/territories/regions will subsidise alternative vehicles that will pollute less; and the extent to which any cost penalty will be balanced by any subsidy.

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